UK census data on ethnic demographics misrepresented

CLAIM: New figures from the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics shows that three of the country’s largest cities, London, Manchester and Birmingham, are now all “minority white.”

AP’S ASSESSMENT: Partly false. ONS has five categories for white-identifying groups. The claim excludes several of these data subsets. The 2021 census data shows that white residents in London and Manchester across all categories still exceed 50% of the population. Birmingham, however, falls slightly under that with 48.6% of residents identifying as white across all categories.

THE FACTS: Following the publication on Tuesday of 2021 census data by the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics, social media users and a conservative British commentator misrepresented information about the demographic data to claim that white-identifying people are now the minority in three of the country’s largest cities.

Nigel Farage — a British broadcaster and former populist politician who was a vocal supporter of Brexit — tweeted to his 1.7 million followers on Tuesday that the recently-released data showed that “London, Manchester and Birmingham are now all minority white cities.”

His post received more than 8,000 shares and 18,000 likes and spread across social media platforms.

But the claim is inaccurate and excludes several subsets of data. While it is true that Birmingham now has a majority of residents who reported their ethnicity as nonwhite, the data released by ONS does not support this claim for London nor Manchester, where white residents still exceed 50% of the population.

ONS breaks down the ethnic group “white” into five categories, English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British; Irish; Gypsy or Irish traveler; Roma; and other white.

Across all of these categories, the data shows that 53.8% of London residents identified as white, 56.8% of Manchester residents identified as white and 48.6% of residents in Birmingham identified as white, meaning white residents still made up a majority of the population in both London and Manchester, though not in Birmingham.

Isolating just the category “White English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Ireland or British” shows that this group was in the minority in London at 36.8%, Manchester at 48.6% and Birmingham at 42.9%. But using just that subset ignores the multiple other groups who also identified as white.

In a statement Wednesday, ONS responded to what it called “misleading statistics” being shared based on the census data.

“There have also been misleading statistical claims that the latest census data show that white people are now a minority in London and Manchester,” the agency wrote. “This is confusing responses from people who have identified with the ‘white British’ ethnic group with responses which identify with ‘white’ ethnic group.”

The agency also posted a statement on Twitter, adding that it was untrue white ethnic groups are a minority in London and Manchester.

The U.K. census takes place every 10 years. Overall, the 2021 data shows that 81.7% residents in England and Wales identified their ethnic group within “white” categories, a decrease from 86% in the 2011 census, according to the report.

Farage did not respond to a request for comment.

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